Cost-effectiveness of a clinical decision support system for atrial fibrillation: an RCT-based modelling study

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrythmia that increases the risk of thromboembolism. Despite the effectiveness of anticoagulation in AF, underuse remains a substantial problem. Clinical decision support (CDS) systems may increase adherence to guideline recommended anticoagulation in AF. However, evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of these interventions is lacking. The aim of this study was therefore to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a CDS for AF.

We developed a disease progression model with a Markov structure and simulated a cohort of hypothetical individuals with AF through a standard of care and a CDS strategy. The adherence to anticoagulation in the model was based on the treatment effect reported in the CDS-AF trial, which evaluated the effect of a CDS in patients with AF in the primary care in Östergötland, Sweden. The cost-effectiveness of the CDS-AF intervention compared with standard of care was determined by estimating costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained over a lifetime time horizon and was reported as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) assessed against a decision-threshold of €50 000. Uncertainty was evaluated using both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). The CDS-intervention resulted in fewer ischaemic strokes but more bleedings. The mean per patient gain in QALYs was 0.012 and the ICER was €963 per QALY gained. The result of the PSA indicated a high probability that the ICER was below €50 000.

The CDS intervention used in the CDS-AF trial appears to yield health gains at a lower cost than typically considered cost-effective.

NCT02635685.