Freedom from atrial arrhythmia and other clinical outcomes at 5 years and beyond after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) is now a mainstream procedure although long-term outcomes are uncertain. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of procedural outcomes at 5 years and beyond.

We searched PubMed and Embase and after the screening, identified 73 studies (67 159 patients) reporting freedom from atrial arrhythmia, all-cause death, stroke, and major bleeding at ≥5 years after AF ablation. The pooled mean age was 59.7y, 71.5% male, 62.2% paroxysmal AF, and radiofrequency was used in 78.1% of studies. Pooled incidence of freedom from atrial arrhythmia at 5 years was 50.6% (95%CI 45.5–55.7%) after a single ablation and 69.7% [95%CI (confidence interval) 63.8–75.3%) after multiple procedures. The incidence was higher among patients with paroxysmal compared with non-paroxysmal AF after single (59.7% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.002) and multiple (80.8% vs. 60.6%, p < 0.001) ablations but was comparable between radiofrequency and cryoablation. Pooled incidences of other outcomes were 6.0% (95%CI 3.2–9.7%) for death, 2.4% (95%CI 1.4–3.7%) for stroke, and 1.2% (95%CI 0.8–2.0%) for major bleeding at 5 years. Beyond 5 years, freedom from arrhythmia recurrence remained largely stable (52.3% and 64.7% after single and multiple procedures at 10 years), while the risk of stroke and bleeding increased over time.

Nearly 70% of patients having multiple ablations remained free from atrial arrhythmia at 5 years, with the incidence slightly decreasing beyond this period. Risk of death, stroke, and major bleeding at 5 years were low but increased over time, emphasizing the importance of long-term thromboembolism prevention and bleeding risk management.