Nationwide cardiovascular risk categorization: applying the European Society of Cardiology guidelines to the Swedish National Diabetes Register

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with a very high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk receive cardiovascular (CV)-protective glucose-lowering medication (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists or sodium–glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors). This analysis compared previous prescribing practices with the ESC recommendations.

Patients in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) with T2D, aged 18–90 years, not receiving CV-protective glucose-lowering medication in 2017 were identified, and the ESC criteria for very high CVD risk were applied. The composite outcome of major adverse CV events (MACEs; defined as CV death, non-fatal stroke or non-fatal myocardial infarction) during 2017 was calculated, and the number of MACE avoided with semaglutide, an example of a CV-protective glucose-lowering medication, was estimated for patients with a certain CV risk score. Of the 320 028 patients in the NDR with T2D who were not receiving CV-protective glucose-lowering medication, 129 512 patients had a very high CVD risk. Patients with a very high CVD risk had a high incidence of MACE (75.4 events/1000 person-years), which was higher in those with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) with and without elevated glycated haemoglobin (>9%; 136.5 and 90.8 events/1000 person-years, respectively). If patients with a very high CVD risk, according to the ESC, and ASCVD received semaglutide, 803 MACE may have been avoided in 2017.

This analysis highlights differences between previous prescribing practices in Sweden and the 2021 ESC guidelines and offers strategies to prioritize CV-protective glucose-lowering medication for patients who would benefit most.