Changing paradigms: from prevention of thromboembolic events to improved survival in patients with atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation is associated with a five-fold increase in the risk of stroke. Current guidelines recommend the use of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to stratify the risk of stroke. In addition, guidelines recommend the identification of the conditions that increase the risk of haemorrhage to be modified and thus decrease the risk of bleeding. Nevertheless, many patients with a high thromboembolic risk are prescribed antiplatelet treatment or do not receive any antithrombotic therapy. In addition, therapeutic inertia is common in anticoagulated patients taking vitamin K antagonists, and underdosing is an emerging problem with direct oral anticoagulants, probably because many physicians consider the risk of stroke and the risk of major bleeding to be equal. It is necessary to develop a new approach to risk stratification, an approach that moves from morbidity to mortality, i.e., from stratification of the risk of stroke and major bleeding to stratification of the risk of mortality associated with stroke and the risk of mortality associated with bleeding. In this article, we propose a novel risk stratification approach based on the mortality associated with stroke and bleeding, illustrated by data derived from the literature.