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Expected effect of ESC recommendations on diet and physical activity, on CAD attack rate in northern Spain: the REGICOR Study.

Session Poster Session III - Friday 08:30 - 12:30

Speaker Irene Roman Degano

Event : ESC Preventive Cardiology (Formerly EuroPrevent) 2015

  • Topic : preventive cardiology
  • Sub-topic : Lipids
  • Session type : Poster Session

Authors : IR Degano (Barcelona,ES), M Grau (Barcelona,ES), I Subirana (Barcelona,ES), J Vila (Barcelona,ES), R Elosua (Barcelona,ES), J Marrugat (Barcelona,ES)

Authors:
IR Degano1 , M Grau1 , I Subirana1 , J Vila1 , R Elosua1 , J Marrugat1 , 1Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute (IMIM) - Barcelona - Spain ,

Citation:

Purpose: To estimate the effect of ESC recommendations on diet and physical activity (PA) on coronary artery disease (CAD) attack rate in a European region with low CAD risk.
Methods: The CASSANDRA model, based on the Framingham-REGICOR CV risk function, was used to estimate CAD attack rate until 2025. The model was applied using the demographic distribution of the REGICOR population (Girona, Spain), the prevalence of CV risk factors at baseline (2005), the probable trend of CV risk factors until 2025, and the effect of diet and PA recommendations on hypercholesterolemia and hypertension prevalence. The latter was obtained by multiple linear regression, assuming the maximum expected effect of recommendations on blood pressure and LDL cholesterol to the candidate population. Results: CAD attack rate is expected to increase in Girona until 2025 (267 to 298/100,000 in men, and 75 to 84/100,000 in women, 4th scenario Figure). If those not following current recommendations on diet and PA did so, a smaller increase would be expected (267 to 279/100,000, and 75 to 81/100,000) based on the decrease of hypercholesterolemia and hypertension prevalence (3rd scenario Figure). In men, this reduction mimics the expected by the probable trends on diabetes and smoking prevalence (-3.8% and -1.85%, 2nd scenario Figure). In women, the observed reduction would compensate the expected increase (75 to 87/100,000) by the probable trends on diabetes and smoking prevalence (3.3% and 3.6%).
Conclusions: Current diet and PA recommendations are predicted to reduce CAD attack rates in a low risk European region. In women, this reduction would compensate probable unfavorable trends on diabetes and smoking. The effect of diet and PA recommendations in European regions with higher CAD risk would probably be larger.

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