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Combination assessment of renal and hepatic dysfunction improves the predictability of prognosis in patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

Session Poster Session 6

Speaker Naoki Shibata

Event : ESC Congress 2019

  • Topic : heart failure
  • Sub-topic : Acute Heart Failure – Epidemiology, Prognosis, Outcome
  • Session type : Poster Session

Authors : N Shibata (Ichinomiya,JP), T Sumi (Ichinomiya,JP), N Umemoto (Ichinomiya,JP), H Kajiura (Ichinomiya,JP), S Inoue (Ichinomiya,JP), Y Iio (Ichinomiya,JP), T Sugiura (Ichinomiya,JP), T Taniguchi (Ichinomiya,JP), T Asai (Ichinomiya,JP), M Yamada (Ichinomiya,JP), K Shimizu (Ichinomiya,JP), T Murohara (Nagoya,JP)

Authors:
N. Shibata1 , T. Sumi1 , N. Umemoto1 , H. Kajiura1 , S. Inoue1 , Y. Iio1 , T. Sugiura1 , T. Taniguchi1 , T. Asai1 , M. Yamada1 , K. Shimizu1 , T. Murohara2 , 1Ichinomiya municipal hospital, Department of cardiology - Ichinomiya - Japan , 2Nagoya University Hospital, Department of cardiology - Nagoya - Japan ,

Citation:
European Heart Journal ( 2019 ) 40 ( Supplement ), 3296

Background: Renal dysfunction is associated with poor mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). Hepatic dysfunction, assessed by Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index, has also prediction ability in acute decompensated HF (ADHF) patients. We investigated whether the assessment of the combination of FIB4 index and renal dysfunction improves predictability in patients with ADHF.

Methods: We retrospectively enrolled consecutive 758 patients who admitted due to ADHF from January 2011 to February 2018 and followed up for one year. FIB4 index on admission was calculated by the formula: age (yrs) × AST[U/L] / (platelets [103/μL] × (ALT[U/L])1/2). Study subjects were divided into high FIB4 index (>3.25) and low FIB4 index (≤3.25), furthermore each group were classified by the presence/absence of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73m). We have generated four groups; low FIB4/without CKD (n=154), low FIB4/with CKD (n=294), high FIB4/without CKD (n=56), and high FIB4/with CKD (n=254). The primary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality in one year. We performed Kaplan-Meyer analysis and multivariable Cox regression models. Furthermore, we evaluated the incremental value with C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) when FIB4 index and renal dysfunction added to a baseline model.

Results: In total, 106 patients died in one year. High FIB4 index and CKD showed significantly higher 1-year mortality (high FIB4 index: 19.7% vs 10.3%, p<0.001, CKD: 17.0% vs 6.7%, p<0.001, respectively). Kaplan-Meyer analysis shows that high FIB4 index with CKD showed statistically higher mortality than the others (vs low FIB4/without CKD, p<0.001, vs high FIB4/without CKD, p=0.031, vs low FIB4/with CKD, p<0.001, respectively).

Multivariate Cox regression model revealed that both high FIB4 index and CKD were an independent risk predictor of 1-year mortality (FIB4 index: p<0.001, HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.035–1.087, CKD: p=0.004, HR 1.834, 95% CI 1.213–2.773, respectively) in patients with ADHF.

A baseline model for prediction of 1-year mortality was determined by multivariable logistic regression including age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and serum albumin (C-index: 0.688). Adding high FIB4 index and CKD to the baseline model, all of C-index (0.738, p=0.04), NRI (0.122, p=0.067), and IDI (0.024, p=0.004) were improved.

Conclusions: Combination assessment of renal and hepatic dysfunction could improve the predictability of prognosis in patients with ADHF.

Receiver operating characteristic curves

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