In order to bring you the best possible user experience, this site uses Javascript. If you are seeing this message, it is likely that the Javascript option in your browser is disabled. For optimal viewing of this site, please ensure that Javascript is enabled for your browser.


This content is currently on FREE ACCESS, enjoy another 80 days of free consultation

 

Derivation and validation of novel score system for predicting all-cause death and myocardial infarction in coronary artery ectasia

Session Poster Session 1

Speaker Yintang Wang

Congress : ESC Congress 2019

  • Topic : coronary artery disease, acute coronary syndromes, acute cardiac care
  • Sub-topic : Coronary Artery Disease - Epidemiology, Prognosis, Outcome
  • Session type : Poster Session
  • FP Number : P841

Authors : YT Wang (Beijing,CN), WH Song (Beijing,CN), YJ Wu (Beijing,CN), P Zhang (Beijing,CN)

Authors:
YT Wang1 , WH Song2 , YJ Wu2 , P Zhang3 , 1Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, School of Clinical Medicine, Tsinghua University - Beijing - China , 2Fuwai Hospital- Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College - Beijing - China , 3Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, School of Clinical Medicine, Tsinghua University - Beijing - China ,

Citation:

Background
Coronary artery ectasia (CAE) bears high risk of death and myocardial infarction. Risk stratification in CAE patients is crucial for their management, but there were no risk score systems intended for risk evaluation of CAE patients so far.
Methods
In a retrospective cohort of 595 patients with CAE, we collected the baseline characteristics (clinical history, biomarkers and quantitative coronary angiography variables). Follow-up were conducted and the end-point event was the composite of all-cause death and non-fatal myocardial infarction. The candidate predictors of end-point event were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models to derive a risk score in the form of nomogram. The predictive performance and discriminative ability of the novel nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, that were validated internally. Risk stratification by nomogram-predicted risk score was further evaluated.

Results
During a median follow-up time of 62.3 months, 26 all-cause deaths and 37 non-fatal myocardial infarctions were identified. The final risk-prediction model named ABCD-CAE score included four items: age (A), Brain natriuretic peptide (B), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (C) and maximum Dilated area of ectatic lesions (D). The nomogram yielded a C-index for end-point event of 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.64 - 0.79). The calibration curve demonstrated that there is good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation of end-point events. Compared with the low-risk group (score = 100), the risk of composite events was significantly increased in the intermediate-risk group (score: 100-130) and high-risk group (score > 130) [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 2.23(1.23-4.06), P = 0.008 and 7.02 (3.81-12.97), P < 0.001 respectively].

Conclusions The ABCD-CAE score is a simple four-item risk score, that provides a clinically useful tool for the risk prediction of all-cause death and myocardial infarction in patients with CAE. This user-friendly tool might support clinical decision making for the management of CAE.



Based on your interests

Members get more

Join now
  • 1ESC Professional Members – access all resources from ESC Congress and ESC Asia with APSC & AFC
  • 2ESC Association Members (Ivory, Silver, Gold) – access your Association’s congress resources
  • 3Under 40 or in training - with a Combined Membership, access resources from all congresses
Join now

Our sponsors

ESC 365 is supported by Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim and Lilly Alliance, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer Alliance, Novartis Pharma AG and Vifor Pharma in the form of educational grants. The sponsors were not involved in the development of this platform and had no influence on its content.

logo esc

Our mission: To reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease

Who we are