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Balancing risk and benefit in patients with atrial fibrillation: the GARFIELD-AF risk score
K. Fox1
,
S. Virdone2
,
K. Pieper2
,
1University of Edinburgh - Edinburgh - United Kingdom
,
2Thrombosis Research Institute - London - United Kingdom
,
Background: The GARFIELD-AF risk tool was originally developed to predict future risk of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) using a range of baseline clinical variables. In the present work a new, improved risk tool was developed using data from all five GARFIELD cohorts gathered over 2 years' follow-up.
Purpose: To derive a new integrated risk tool for predicting mortality, stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding in AF patients up to 2 years after enrolment and compare the risk tool versus CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.
Methods: GARFIELD-AF is an international prospective registry of nonvalvular AF patients diagnosed within 6 weeks prior to enrolment and having at least one risk factor for stroke. In this study only the first occurrence of events was considered. Event rates were estimated using a Poisson model. Potential predictors of events including a large set of demographics, clinical characteristics, choice of treatment, and lifestyle factors were identified, and a Cox proportional hazards model chosen for each outcome by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Indices were compared versus models of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.
Results: Among a total 52,080 patients enrolled 52,032 (male, 55.8%; median age, 71 years) had available follow-up data. At 2 years, 3702 patients had died (event rate, 3.82 [95% CI, 3.70–3.95] per 100 patient-years) whereas non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE was noted in 957 patients (rate, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.94–1.06] per 100 patient-years) and major bleed/haemorrhagic stroke in 673 patients (rate, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.65–0.75] per 100 patient-years). The GARFIELD risk tool outperformed CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED at predicting all adverse events in the overall population and pre-selected subpopulations over 2 years. Notably, the new model identified use of OAC therapy, which is not included in CHA2DS2-VASc, as one of the strongest predictors of risk of mortality and stroke, and unlike HAS-BLED, could discriminate a lower risk of bleeding in patients treated with NOACs versus VKAs.
Conclusions: The GARFIELD-AF risk tool demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, outperforming CHA2DS2-VASc at predicting risk of death and non-haemorrhagic stroke and HAS-BLED for major bleed in AF patients over 2 years.
In line with the ESC mission, newly presented content is made available to all for a limited time (4 months for ESC Congress, 3 months for other events). ESC Professional Members, Association Members (Ivory & above) benefit from year-round access to all the resources from their respective Association, and to all content from previous years. Fellows of the ESC (FESC), and Professionals in training or under 40 years old, who subscribed to a Young Combined Membership package benefit from access to all ESC 365 content from all events, all editions, all year long. Find out more about ESC Memberships here.
